What Impact Do The Judges Have On The Voting?

Simon said in regard to Sanjaya during the top 10 performance show, that it doesn't really matter what they (ie. the judges) say anymore. In the case of Sanjaya, there might be some truth to this. But this raises the question of just what impact do the judges have anyway?

To answer this question, we must first determine the types of voting viewers out there. I submit that there are the following:

1. Die-hard fans who will vote for their favourite contestant each week, regardless of what the judges say, and regardless of how badly their guy/girl performs.

2. Those who vote based on who they think did best that week.

3. Those who want to prove the judges wrong, so vote for the contestants that the judges gave poor reviews for.

4. The VoteForTheWorsters.

If I am leaving out any other category, please post it in the comments.

In the cases of 1 and 4, clearly the judges have no impact. Categories 2 and 3 would be where the judges will have the most impact, though it will be in opposite directions.

Just based on intuition, it would appear that category 2 has by far the largest population. This would be the audience that will vote more in line with how the judges have assessed the contestants.

Now why should what the judges say, affect even these folks? Well the minds of this set of people is more impressionable to the word of authority. The judges are authority figures, and what they say will seem to be true to those who see them in this light, which is the majority of folks. This is simply a matter of psychology.

Have you ever listened to a contestant perform, and you thought they did ok, with some weaknesses here and there, and then when you hear the judges comment on how terrible it was, you start to revise your assessment downwards? Or have you ever been totally unimpressed with a contestant, but hear the judges give raving reviews, not just once, but consistently over time, and then you just start accepting that the contestant must really be good? Even I as a critical viewer sometimes find myself being swayed by what the judges say, until I realise what I'm doing, and do a re-evaluation.

Now to demonstrate just how powerful the words of the judges are, let us take the case of season 2 of American Idol. Here we can see that it was the judges who practically made Ruben the American Idol. Clay Aiken was clearly the superior contestant, and record sales subsequent to the show have proven this. But the judges' consistently high praise of Ruben week after week seems to have skewed the voting in his favour.

Considering the various categories of viewers, it is likely that the impact of the judges will diminish over time, especially if the same judges are used each year. Familiarity breeds contempt, as the saying goes. The votefortheworsters are likely to continue gaining support, taking away from the population more susceptible to being swayed by the judges. However, this population is probably so large, that it is not likely to be reduced enough to significantly affect the impact of the judges anytime soon.

Then again, it might not take that much of a shift from this judge friendly subset of voters to that of the votefortheworsters, for the effects to start being noticed. The reason for this is that, most people in the former group probably only cast a handful of votes at any given time. The latter group however, vote as much as they can, like hundreds or even thousands of times on a given performance show night.

So the conclusion is, the judges do have a significant amount of swaying power, though it has probably been decreasing over the years.

Recap Top 10 Results Show

The much anticipated American Idol top 10 results show opened with Ryan informing us that two questions will be answered tonight. Who is going home? And, How will Sanjaya wear his hair? Seems Sanjaya has succeeded in taking people's attention off his vocal skills, to his more captivating hairstyles.

Naturally, a commercial break is at the top of the schedule. When
Ryan returns though, he thrills the audience with a piece of something on his head to mimic the freak look of Sanjaya on the previous night.

Once the audience has subsided, a video clip of the top 10 is shown, where they sing I Fought The Law. Fairly entertaining, it was. But of course, we just want to see who is going home.


So he quickly gets to the calling out. At this point I started to take note of the seating arrangement, just in case my theory on this kicked in, which it did. (refer to Results Show Seating Arrangement Theory)

The rumours circulating before the show had Chris Sligh, Haley and Jordin in the bottom 3. So it was quite fitting that they had Chris Sligh on one end, and Haley just before the other end of the row.

First up is Blake. Safe as most would expect. Lakisha is next, but no point really, as she could not possibly be in the bottom 3 at this stage. Then comes Phil. Phil gave a decent performance the previous night, that earned the judges respect. Now just before the results show I posted some thoughts (here) where I predicted Phil would be in the bottom 3. My explanation is found in the bottom 2/3 theory page so I won't repeat myself here. Therefore, when Ryan told Phil to step down to the centre stage, I was not at all surprised.

The Lovely Haley was next to be placed in the danger zone. This is not surprising even without the benefit of leaked information. For although Haley displayed fine vocals, the performance itself was not memorable, as Simon rightly pointed out.

Ryan gets to the last two contestants, Gina and Chris Sligh, but then delays naming the third of the "bottom 3", until after the break, and after a performance by the pretty and sexy Gwen Stefani, though at this stage, it should be quite obvious that Sligh is the one to stand in the spotlight.

Gwen seems to be more of a performer than a vocalist. Her singing isn't bad, but certainly nothing to get excited over. At least, the song she performed gave no indication of any magnificent vocal talents. Well, as she said, she should be taking advice from Lakisha.


So standing together centre stage we have Phil, Haley (not Stacy, as Ryan mistakenly said before the break) and Chris S. At this point Ryan does the usual bit of sending one person back to sit, and this person is Phil.

Just Lovely Haley and Chris S standing. Ryan asks the judges who they think will be leaving. As could be expected, only Simon actually says plainly what he thinks, and gets it right too.

Ultimately it is Chris S identified as the one leaving this round. No surprise according to Dialidol's prediction, and also in line with the pre-show rumour.

This time there was enough time to air the final performance of the departing contestant. Hmm...I kinda liked Chris' performance better on this try than on the prior night.

We'll miss you Chris. I still maintain that of the guys, Chris S has the best vocals. Congrats Haley!

Recap Top 10

This show was shorter than the prior two, running just 1hr 7 minutes, as opposed to 2hrs. Overall, I must say it was a fairly subdued night, and pretty close to boring. Certainly compared to last week, it was nothing. This seems to be a sort of a trend with this Season of American Idol. One show is very entertaining, and then the following one is just dull.

Anyway, on to the recap! So this week the guest mentor was Gwen Stefani. They showed her explaining what she thinks the contestants should do to improve or to perform well, except that this was clearly after she had worked with them, and not while. Now it is not clear whether she did give those same comments to the contestants themselves. In the prior week, when they had Lulu, it was clearly seen that she was giving very useful advice to the contestants. Well, we'll give Gwen the benefit of the doubt, and assume she did at least tell the contestants just what we heard her say.

The first to perform was Lakisha. Lakisha sang a Donna Summer song, which I didn't really like. I also did not like the boots she was wearing. However, her voice was really good, and I guess that's the important thing. Randy liked the boots, and so did Simon. Sad. Simon agreed with me that it was a "great vocal".

Up next was Chris Sligh --Sligh clearly has the best voice of the males. However, his display tonight was unfortunate. It was quite boring, if you ask me, and there was just something wrong with it. The judges (Randy and Paula), thought that he wasn't in step with the rhythm and beat. They might actually be on to something. Simon thought it was a mess, and also might have been on to something when he said the song didn't suit him. Well whatever the problem, Chris did not shine tonight, and quite frankly, is in serious danger of leaving the competition this round.

The lucky Gina. I say lucky because she has put out some really horrible vocals in prior shows and managed to survive thus far. It looks as if she took the judges comments to heart last week, and decided to concentrate on her vocals this round. For she sounded much better this week. I wasn't impressed with the song itself though. The judges liked her performance. Randy thought it was one of her best, and Simon thought it was her best so far. I am inclined to agree. I'm still not a fan of hers though.

Sanjaya - Good grief! Just when you think he can't get any worse with his hairstyles, he comes out with what looks like some kind of bird's nest on his head. His vocals didn't help to shift the focus from off the spectacle appearing on his head. However, there were parts that were actually decent, which gave a glimmer of hope that somewhere inside that kid lies a great performance. Is that just wishful thinking? Perhaps. The poor fellow has suffered a lot of abuse and one just wishes he could sing better! Randy was speechless, and Simon said it didn't matter what they said anymore. So true!



The Lovely Haley - Oh Haley. A disappointing performance. I wasn't thrilled at all. However, she still displayed some great vocals. It was probably a wrong song choice for her though. She needs to start showing off what she's got (and I'm referring to the voice here) more prominently. Simon was right that what she did tonight tends to be forgettable. Her fans need to work harder to keep her in now, as I don't think she will garner new supporters for this performance. I must re-emphasise though, that she still demonstrated some great vocals.


Phil -Phil got good reviews from the judges this time, and I can't fault them for that. His performance was actually pretty good, and he clearly made a good song choice. However, we all know how bad Phil can sound, so we need to see more consistency before we can start feeling good about him progressing to further rounds.

(Phil tucking in his ears)


Melinda
--Not my favourite song, and actually her style doesn't quite appeal to me. However, her vocals were excellent, even as Simon said. Number 1 for the night, in my book.

Blake -This guy Blake once again comes with a safe song that does not require much voice range. He has a nice tone in that short range that he sticks to, but because he doesn't venture out, he tends to be a yawner. Paula commented that she liked him because he takes risks. LOL! The recaps of the performances at the end of the show did not do him any favours. If that was all I heard from him, I would have concluded that he was horrible. He wasn't though. But make no mistake about it, it was not a great performance by far.

Jordin - Decent. Pretty decent. Entertaining even. The judges think she is the most improved. I don't really see that. I thought she was always great.

Chris Richardson --Once again Chris R fails to demonstrate any vocal prowess. I thought it was awful actually. Paula sounded stupid when giving her comments ("it was gooood"). It wasn't just what she said, but the way she said it. Simon was quite right when he highlighted the fact that Chris really needs to work on his vocals.

So there you have the top 10. My assessment is that Melinda, Lakisha and Jordin were the top 3. And for the bottom 3, I would have Sanjaya, Chris S and Chris R. However, that is not to say that I predict they will be in the bottom 3. America generally does not get it right.

If American Idol Was A Radio Programme

If American Idol was a radio programme, what impact would it have on our perception of who is the best or even the worst? In other words, would it affect who we choose as our favourite or least favourite?

My theory is that it would make a significant difference. As the show is now, people tend to get distracted by looks, and moves on stage. This can actually work both ways. Silly girls might fawn over a guy because he has long hair and pay less attention to the quality of singing. On the other hand, some might dislike a contestant just because of the look, whether it is cockiness, haughtiness or ugliness, regardless of voice calibre.

So for example, for this season, Sanjaya would have been out long ago, for sure!
What about Blake? Well I don't think he would have been out yet, but would he be so popular?

What about previous seasons - who would have been impacted the most, for better or worse?

Recap Top 11 Results Show

The results show for the top 11 was just half hour, and so everything went pretty fast. As usual, there was a lot of filler before getting to the main point -who is going home?

Probably the first main item of interest was a live performance by Peter Noone. I found it somewhat boring, and kept wondering, how would the judges rate him?


A little later, there was a feature video of the group singing Another Saturday Night. The part that really got my attention was when they showed Melinda doing some acrobatics. At least they made it seem like it was her. But the pic to the right doesn't bear much resemblance. So it is unlikely this is one of her less known talents.




Also of interest (to some anyway) was the appearance of Brad Garrett, more popularly known as Raymond's brother, in Everybody Loves Raymond. Sitting with the top 11, he awaits the results, but not for long, as Ryan promptly tells him he is out, and sends him away.

We are then treated to a performance by Lulu herself. After I watched Diana Ross the previous week, I must say I was apprehensive. When it was announced that she would be singing To Sir With Love I started to look forward to it. But I was quickly disappointed when I heard the rendition. I really think Lulu messed that up. She should have stuck to the original. She murdered a perfectly good song.

For how this song should have been done, click here

As to her vocal quality at her age, well, like Diana Ross it seemed to have diminished somewhat. I guess that is to be expected.

Finally we get to the point! Time to identify the bottom 3.
It wasn't long before the results show that I posted my theory on the seating arrangement. So I was paying close to attention to this. Now the rumour circulating all day before the show, was that the bottom 3 were Gina, Haley and Stephanie, with Steph predicted to go home.

So when I observed that Gina and Haley were sitting at the ends, and Steph sitting next to Sanjaya at the end, I figured that the rumour was correct. I expected Ryan to leave Steph and Sanjaya for last.

Well Ryan did something I wasn't expecting at this stage at all. He decides to do groups of 3s. So first he tells Phil, Melinda, Blake to stand. He then gives the summary of each, and tells them they are all safe. Well if one knew he was going to give a group decision, then it would have been so obvious they were all safe, simply from the fact that Melinda was among them.

Next he calls out Chris S, Lakisha, Jordin. At this point it is no surprise that he says they are safe since Lakisha is among them. The contestants appeared really relieved all the same when Ryan gave them the good news.

Sanjaya, Haley, Gina - I don't know if people were really expecting Ryan to say they were in the bottom 3. That would not be likely, since there are still 2 other contestants that he has said nothing about yet. The tricky thing though, is that we are expecting to see a bottom 3.

But Ryan threw us off and only identified the bottom 2, who supposedly are Chris R and Stephanie. I say supposedly because of the suspicion cast over these results. See here
(Why weren't the bottom 3 shown this time? Another conspiracy theory is begging to be born)

Anyway, Ryan tells Chris R he is staying. Unfortunately for Stephanie, it matters not that she is the more talented of the two.

There you have it. Just 10 left now. Btw, this means Sanjaya is scheduled to tour with the group later this year. LOL!

Results Show Seating Arrangement

I'm not sure how much of a theory this is, as maybe the mechanics of this process has been made public before and I simply didn't hear. But based on observation, I would postulate that the seating arrangement in the results show of the contestants is not random. I believe those who know the results beforehand, ensure that the contestants sit in a particular order.

When I first watched American Idol, which was the second season, I used to wonder, what happens if Ryan identifies the bottom 3 before going through all the contestants? If that happened then he wouldn't get the chance to give the summary for each participant of their previous night's performance and the judges responses.

As I continued to watch though, I notice that never happened.

Therefore, it would appear that they try to ensure that one of the bottom three is either at the end of the row, or in the seat just before that. Now the theory breaks down as more contestants leave the show. For at a certain point, Ryan gets creative and instead of going in order for each row, he might split them up into groups.

So then, this should mean that if Ryan goes row by row, then one of the bottom 3 will be at the end of a row, or just before it. However, if Ryan all of a sudden skips some in a row to go toward the end of it, then it would indicate that one of the bottom 3 is either the person he skipped who would have been the logical continuation in the sequence, or the person who is just next to him/her.

So for example, if in a row we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and Ryan said 1 is safe, and then skips over to 6 and starts to proceed to 5, then we should be able to safely conclude that either 2 or 3 is in the bottom 3.

Well Top 11 results show will soon be up. We can try making a prediction based on this theory. I'll post a comment after the show.

Recap Top 11

Ok Folks,

The top 11 have now performed. I think this must be the best episode since the public has gotten the chance to vote, for Season 6. There were some really good performances, and some entertaining parts. This is how I saw it:

1. The Lovely Haley went first. She clearly has a great voice. Yes, she is sweet looking, nice personality, dresses somewhat seductively, but it is the voice I'm focusing on here. Lovely. Just lovely.

2. Up next was Stephanie. I must confess that I'm not a fan of hers. However, I really did like her performance tonight. It was nice listening to her. The judges however gave her a pretty hard time. Paula even started with the looking good bit. Ugh!

3. Chris R. Chris gave a half decent performance. I've just never been impressed with this guy, and I'm still not impressed. Part of the problem is as he said at the start, that before he has just been jumping around, but now wants to let people know he can sing. Well I think he needs to try harder still. The judges thought he was hot though.

4. Blake. This guy has the nerve to come out wearing what looks like his pijamas bottom (see pic below). I must admit that he was not bad at all this show. I thought he did a pretty safe song, one that did not require much range in the vocals. I have a problem finding the motivation to put my support behind him.

After the judges gave their feedback, Ryan decides to try some weird moves. (see pic on right)

5. Lakisha! This girl is clearly a fine singer. The song she chose seemed to have been a bit staid for her, but she still showed that she is without doubt one of the best in the competition.

6. Phil. Hmm...Ok, it was one of his better performances. But Simon thinks he will be in the bottom 3. That might be true. Phil is really not so great. Losing him will not be a great loss. But again, I thought he did fine this time.

7. The young Miss Jordin. She made a comment about Lulu being "so cute". I thought that was kinda gay (not that I think she is gay). Anyway, she gave an excellent vocal. Really impressive!

8. Sanjaya. Well well well. Certainly a change this week (I don't mean the hair).
I guess I would have to judge his performance this week to be better than prior ones. However, I'm still not detecting the vocals to warrant a position in the top 12, or even the top 24, much less the top 10! Randy and Paula liked the change. Simon thought Ashley's look said it all (see pic). LOL!

9. Gina. Oh dear. Once again, Gina shows how weak her vocals can be. She did it once before and managed to survive. Will she come through again? Randy and Paula didn't think she was bad. Simon thought she was horrible. She did say she feels good about how she did. Hopefully America will show her why she shouldn't be feeling so good.

10. Chris Sligh. He was easily the best male vocalist of the night. This guy is talented and hopefully will outlast all the other guys.

11. Melinda. Once again consistent and true to expectations. In other words, a fantastic display of vocal skills. The song might not have appealed to many people, but objectively speaking, she really sang it well. Good Job.

So there you have it folks. Now, who will be the bottom 3?

Order In Which Contestants Perform

Does the order in which the contestants perform affect the outcome of the votes?

My theory is that it does, with the one performing first being at a disadvantage. The reason I say this, is that it is easier to forget the first performance since you'd have to sit through all the others, making it less fresh in your mind. (Naturally the more performers, the worse it is for the first, according to this theory). Also, some people might tune in to the show just a little late when the first performer has just finished.

Ok, the only evidence I can think of offhand is Rudy (the first guy voted off in the top 25) and Brandon (first one to leave the top 12). Now I don't think Rudy should have gone that round. Brandon however, probably really deserved to. So not much data yet to back this theory. But we'll see how it goes. Keep in mind though that as the contestants become fewer, the effect of going first will diminish.

The word on the streets is that Haley is going first tonight (Mar 20, 2007). If this is true, then it could mean the producers are now taking action to knock her out the show. Well this brings up the question, just how do they determine what order the contestants perform in? In any case, we must work harder tonight to keep the lovely Haley in the game.

The Bottom 2/3 (really?)

(Apr 23 Update for Top 7 Results Show) The trusty dialidol source had the bottom 4 as (going in descending order) Blake, Chris, Sanjaya, Lakisha. This list would seem to pose a challenge to the theory being explored here. First of all, Lakisha didn't go home. Second, based on my working theory, that they are mixing the bottom guys with the bottom girls, then Blake, Sanjaya and Lakisha should not have been a possible option. Yet that is who they showed as the bottom 3.

But all is not lost. First of all, the source indicated that Sanjaya and Lakisha were extremely close. This being the case, it seems they forced Sanjaya out. Now I don't think this is so far fetched. For if the two were really very close in the voting tally, then the producers could reason that since Sanjaya was getting a lot of VoteForTheWorst votes, then Lakisha would have had more legitimate votes than Sanjaya, and so made a discretionary judgment to eliminate Sanjaya. Ok, this would take care of the discrepancy of Sanjaya leaving as opposed to Lakisha.

There is still the issue of Blake being shown in the bottom 3 as opposed to Chris. I should also mention that another person had posted a results list shortly after the trusty source posted his. In this other list, the only difference was that Blake and Chris were interchanged. Therefore going by that list, there is no dilemma at all. Also, dialidol stats had Blake, Sanjaya and Lakisha ranked lowest. What I believe is actually going on here, is that Chris and Blake were also very close. So the producers probably thought they had the right to put either Chris or Blake in the bottom 3. Since they seem to favour Blake over Chris, it makes sense to put him in this group, since he will likely get a boost in votes the next round, from fans and others who will put more effort into voting just to make sure he doesn't come so close to danger next time. Then again, the true list could have been the one from the second dialidol source.

I will have to conclude that the theory continues to hold.

(Apr 17 Update for Top 8 Results Show)
I should have updated this earlier. But with the loss of the Lovely Haley, I just wasn't inclined to. But I think it is in the best interest of the public that I share the data I have and supply my analysis. The trusty source cited the true bottom 3 to be Chris, Lakisha and Haley, with Chris getting more votes than Lakisha. Phil was ranked just above Chris. So once again the theory continues to hold. They just showed the bottom 2 guys and the girl. It seems the producers don't mind if Lakisha takes an early exit. If Lakisha does leave next, I'll add some comments regarding that.

(Apr 5 Post Results Show update)
I promised I would revisit this log if I got any updates. Well good news! The reliable source from dialidol has posted the list of the contestants ranked by votes. The true bottom 3 were Lakisha, Haley and Gina, in that order. Phil was just above Lakisha. So this means the theory postulated last week still holds. They used the lowest of the boys, with the lowest of the girls. Read entries below for more details. Now again, why would the producers not show the real bottom 3? As said before, one could be to confound dialidol's predictions. Another could be that they think it advantageous to them if Lakisha goes home next. For by not putting her with the bottom 3, she won't get the effect of her fans voting even harder the following week to save her. This of course would be a big shocker, which the producers certainly take pleasure in.

(Apr 4 Results Show)
This week was a little tricky to analyse. The main problem is that the one responsible for giving the word to the street did not post the final results list. The person did post early in the day that it looked like Gina would be leaving, but explained that this info came in before all the votes were tallied. A list was posted by someone with a different and new username on the dialidol forum, shortly before the actual show, claiming that it was the updated results list. This list had Gina, Lakisha and Jordin as the bottom 3. Compare that to dialidol's stats which placed Haley, Gina and Lakisha as the bottom holders. Now in the updated list posted by the person with the new username on dialidol, Phil was not in the bottom 3, but was the lowest ranked of all the guys.

Now there is no reason to believe the American Idol producers are not up to tricks this week. Therefore, it stands to reason, based on observation from previous weeks coupled with the outcome of this show, that the producers are still doing some mixing of the bottom guys with the bottom girls. So this explains Phil's presence in this group. The only one to explain now is the Lovely Haley. The list provided by the new comer, did not have Haley in the bottom 3. So this is enigmatic. The possible explanations are, either this list provided was not correct (recall that this list was not provided by the usual reliable source, or at least that is not yet determined), or the list is correct, and the producers are not necessarily taking the bottom girls.

It could be that the producers realised that we have been on to them, having figured out that the bottom 3 have been a mixture of the bottom girls with the bottom guys, and so are now using different criteria. This of course is to be expected, as their main aim is to maintain the element of surprise. Then again, maybe all along, the only element of truth they care about is that the actual lowest vote getter, is the one who leaves, and anyone else can appear in the bottom 3. I doubt that though.

Until I see the real list confirmed by the reliable source, of the ranking by votes for each contestant, it is difficult for me to confidently formulate a theory to explain this results show. What is clear though, is that trickery is involved. If I do get more info, I shall revisit this log. Stay tuned.

(Mar 28 Results Show)
Well well...the top 10 results show is now complete, and my pre-results show predictions have been very much on target (scroll down to Mar 28 Pre-Results Show) . The only inaccuracy was my feeling that they would have put Jordin instead of Haley in the bottom 3. But now that I think about it, going by my working theory, it was not possible for them to place Jordin in the bottom 3 without Haley being in it also.

Ok, let me try to clarify my thinking. It is my belief that the true bottom 3 were Chris Sligh, Haley Scarnato and Jordin Sparks. However, I believe the producers have their reasons for misleading the public. So what I think they do, (building on the theory explained below and credited to rastafarian), and have been doing for at least the last 3 shows now, is showing the bottom of the guys, or bottom of the guys mixed with the bottom of the girls. So if it is a guy who is going home, they would either show only the bottom 3 guys (even though a girl might actually be lower than one or two of those guys) or they would mix it with the bottom girl or girls (even though those girls might have gotten more votes than other guys).

So in the case of tonight, the word on the street was that Chris S was lowest overall, and Haley was next lowest. Now to maintain some semblance of truth, they can't just pick any person to be in the bottom 3 but just making sure the lowest is in it. What they need to do, is either have Chris with Haley and Jordin (bottom 2 girls), or Chris with the next lowest guy (ie. the bottom 2 guys), and Haley (bottom girl). The leaked information had Phil as the next lowest guy, which is why I predicted that they would have him in the bottom 3.

Since the producers want to be tricky, they would not put Chris, Haley and Jordin, since that is the actual bottom 3. They can't put Chris, Jordin and someone else, as to maintain their innocence, they need to include the bottom girl, if they are going to include a girl at all. Therefore, since they wanted a girl to be displayed, then the remaining option was to have Chris, Haley, and the guy with the next lowest number of votes of the guys, who happened to be Phil.

What do you think?

(Mar 28 Pre-Results Show)
Ok, the results show is fast approaching. The word on the street today is that the bottom 3 are Chris S, Lovely Haley and Jordin, with Chris expected to go. Again, this makes sense based on DialIdol's stats. But we can expect more mind games from the producers, so don't expect the bottom 2 or 3 they show to match this leaked information.

Of course, one can argue that this word on the street is just wrong, and therefore does not match the bottom 3 highlighted on the show. However, I'm going to go with the theory that the producers are playing games, while assuming that the rumour of the bottom 3 is correct. Therefore, I expect that the bottom 3 will have Chris S, either Jordin or Haley (but not both) and Phil. If they only show 2 again, then it will be Chris S and one of the girls, most likely Jordin. I'll be back after the show to comment.

(Mar 21 Results Show)
On the American Idol forum on dialidol.com a user with the forum name rastafarian posted an interesting thought. He postulated that the bottom 2 (Stephanie Edwards and Chris Richardson) might really have been the bottom 2 for the girls and boys. In other words, Steph got lowest votes for girls, and Chris got lowest for boys.

Now if there is any truth to this, then it would mean that Chris R might not have been in the overall bottom 3. There is a certain attractiveness to this idea. Remember that based on dialidol's predictions, it was plausible for 3 girls to be in the bottom 3. Also, the rumour that was circulating before the results show had Steph, Haley and Gina as the real bottom 3, with Steph expected to go.

If we were to entertain this idea even further, then it means that for the previous week, the "bottom 3" could really have been the bottom 3 guys, where it just so happened that a guy had the lowest votes overall. But for the other two, it would not mean they had the next lowest number of votes.

Now why would the producers do something like this? Well there could be several reasons. And one could be to make it seem like Dialidol is not at all effective, as Tim7357 commented below.

What do you think?

(Mar 14 Results Show)There is a conspiracy theory circulating that the bottom 3 contestants for last night's show (ie. Mar 14) were not really the bottom 3. Many are surmising that Sanjaya must have ranked higher than that. After all, VoteForTheWorst and Stern, plus his fanbase which got him so far in the first place, would seem to be enough to keep him from the danger zone. Add to that, that DialIdol had him totally safe.

Tell us what you think. Are the producers messing with our minds? Are Seacrest's words loose enough to allow a non-bottom-3er to appear as one of the bottom 3?

Free For All Posting Here

This section is for you to post your thoughts and theories that do not yet have their own space. If a theory or question turns out to be interesting enough, it will be highlighted by being awarded its own space. So let's hear your theories for everything idol!

End of Idol

In past seasons I wondered if the show would ever become stale. It seemed like such a lasting concept. This season causes one to rethink this. It's certainly easier to envision the end of American Idol with the disaster of this season. What do you think will be the greatest contributing factors to the ultimate demise of Idol? Let's hear your theories!

Poor Performing Contestants

Why do poor performing contestants last so long? Really, how in the world did Sanjaya (for example) make it to the top 12? Remember, VoteForTheWorst wasn't even backing him prior to this stage! What gives??

Anyone able to offer a viable theory?

Are votes disregarded?

There is a conspiracy theory out there that the producers can and do ignore the votes, and simply send home who they don't want around any longer. The VoteForTheWorst crowd has helped to popularise this assertion.

What do you think? Is there any evidence to support this? Is there any way, or any evidence, to discount this theory?

Season 6 -Attrocious!

Many are saying this is the worst season of American Idol ever. Tell us your theory of why this season (6) of American Idol is so attrocious!

About This Site

Welcome to IdolTheory!

This is the place to discuss your theories of everything idol, and to see what others are thinking.

Are there hidden motives and agendas to be uncovered? Why do certain contestants last so long? Is the voting system suspicious? Why is this show so popular? What is the future of American Idol?

This is the place for you to ask your questions, and postulate your theories in the quest for enlightenment! Let us hear your theories, regardless of how whacky and/or insignificant they are.

Just a word of caution. In discussing American Idol, it is almost impossible to not discuss specific personalities. I ask that you be civil to one another in the process, and remember that the players in the show are people too.

About The Judges

This page will serve as the index page to the various theories that are focused on the judges.

What Impact Do The Judges Have On Voting?

Interchanging Paula and Randy


The Importance Of Simon Cowell

Index --Best Suited To Sing

As is often indicated by the judges, song choice is important. One person also made this point in the free-for-all theory posting section. The contestants often fail to pick the right songs. Now, do you think you could do better?

In this section, various songs will be selected from time to time. Your job is to identify which American Idol Contestant is best suited to sing each one.

This page will serve as the index to all song pages. The menu on the right will list only the most recent or active additions. Use the comments feature to suggest songs that you'd like to be included here.

The Loneliness, by Babyface
Dirty Diana, by Michael Jackson
Like A Prayer, by Madonna
Scaroborough Fair, Simon & Garfunkel
Physical, by Olivia Newton John
If You're Not The One, by Daniel Bedingfield

If You're Not The One (Daniel Bedingfield)

Which American Idol contestant from any season, do you think is best suited to sing this song?

If You're Not The One, by Daniel Bedingfield




If you can't see the video above, click here

Physical (Olivia Newton John)

Which American Idol contestant from any season, do you think is best suited to sing this song?

Physical, by Olivia Newton John



If you can't see the video, use this link Physical

I would say definitely Haley Scarnato.

Scarborough Fair (Simon & Garfunkel)

Which American Idol contestant from any season, do you think is best suited to sing this song?

Simon and Garfunkel version



Click here if you can't see the video above

Another version by Sarah Brightman



Click here if you can't see the video above

Also, which of the two above do you prefer?

Like A Prayer (Madonna)

Which American Idol contestant from any season, do you think is best suited to sing this song?

Dirty Diana (Michael Jackson)

Which American Idol contestant, whether from this season, or past seasons, do you think is best suited to sing this song?



Click here if you can't see the video above

The Loneliness (Babyface)

Which American Idol contestant, whether from this season, or past seasons, do you think is best suited to sing this song?



My guess would be Elliott Yamin.

Idol Resources: Sites and Blogs

Just what you need to construct your fool-proof or crackpot theories!
You can assist in building this valuable resource now! If you have a link to an American Idol site you want included here, post it in the comments. Then, if you control the site, add a link back to this site (idoltheory.com) to yours. We will check this page several times a week. For all sites suggested that have a link pointing back here, we will then add it to the list below. If the site is not yours and you want to see it added here still, then go ahead and post it in the comments. We will then consider it.

(Note: There is no guarantee that your site will be listed. We will check it first before adding. However, the probability of being listed here is high especially if you participate in the link exchange. If for some reason we decide not to add it, we will post a comment to that effect.)

DialIdol - Free Dialer Software and Discussion Board

American Idol - The Official Site

VoteForTheWorst - An Anti-American Idol Site, Promoting The Worst Contestants

Ken Levine's Blog - Ken does American Idol recaps

American Idol Forum - A fledgling discussion site, with other potentially useful stuff

BuddyTV - This site has coverage of American Idol