The Bottom 2/3 (really?)

(Apr 23 Update for Top 7 Results Show) The trusty dialidol source had the bottom 4 as (going in descending order) Blake, Chris, Sanjaya, Lakisha. This list would seem to pose a challenge to the theory being explored here. First of all, Lakisha didn't go home. Second, based on my working theory, that they are mixing the bottom guys with the bottom girls, then Blake, Sanjaya and Lakisha should not have been a possible option. Yet that is who they showed as the bottom 3.

But all is not lost. First of all, the source indicated that Sanjaya and Lakisha were extremely close. This being the case, it seems they forced Sanjaya out. Now I don't think this is so far fetched. For if the two were really very close in the voting tally, then the producers could reason that since Sanjaya was getting a lot of VoteForTheWorst votes, then Lakisha would have had more legitimate votes than Sanjaya, and so made a discretionary judgment to eliminate Sanjaya. Ok, this would take care of the discrepancy of Sanjaya leaving as opposed to Lakisha.

There is still the issue of Blake being shown in the bottom 3 as opposed to Chris. I should also mention that another person had posted a results list shortly after the trusty source posted his. In this other list, the only difference was that Blake and Chris were interchanged. Therefore going by that list, there is no dilemma at all. Also, dialidol stats had Blake, Sanjaya and Lakisha ranked lowest. What I believe is actually going on here, is that Chris and Blake were also very close. So the producers probably thought they had the right to put either Chris or Blake in the bottom 3. Since they seem to favour Blake over Chris, it makes sense to put him in this group, since he will likely get a boost in votes the next round, from fans and others who will put more effort into voting just to make sure he doesn't come so close to danger next time. Then again, the true list could have been the one from the second dialidol source.

I will have to conclude that the theory continues to hold.

(Apr 17 Update for Top 8 Results Show)
I should have updated this earlier. But with the loss of the Lovely Haley, I just wasn't inclined to. But I think it is in the best interest of the public that I share the data I have and supply my analysis. The trusty source cited the true bottom 3 to be Chris, Lakisha and Haley, with Chris getting more votes than Lakisha. Phil was ranked just above Chris. So once again the theory continues to hold. They just showed the bottom 2 guys and the girl. It seems the producers don't mind if Lakisha takes an early exit. If Lakisha does leave next, I'll add some comments regarding that.

(Apr 5 Post Results Show update)
I promised I would revisit this log if I got any updates. Well good news! The reliable source from dialidol has posted the list of the contestants ranked by votes. The true bottom 3 were Lakisha, Haley and Gina, in that order. Phil was just above Lakisha. So this means the theory postulated last week still holds. They used the lowest of the boys, with the lowest of the girls. Read entries below for more details. Now again, why would the producers not show the real bottom 3? As said before, one could be to confound dialidol's predictions. Another could be that they think it advantageous to them if Lakisha goes home next. For by not putting her with the bottom 3, she won't get the effect of her fans voting even harder the following week to save her. This of course would be a big shocker, which the producers certainly take pleasure in.

(Apr 4 Results Show)
This week was a little tricky to analyse. The main problem is that the one responsible for giving the word to the street did not post the final results list. The person did post early in the day that it looked like Gina would be leaving, but explained that this info came in before all the votes were tallied. A list was posted by someone with a different and new username on the dialidol forum, shortly before the actual show, claiming that it was the updated results list. This list had Gina, Lakisha and Jordin as the bottom 3. Compare that to dialidol's stats which placed Haley, Gina and Lakisha as the bottom holders. Now in the updated list posted by the person with the new username on dialidol, Phil was not in the bottom 3, but was the lowest ranked of all the guys.

Now there is no reason to believe the American Idol producers are not up to tricks this week. Therefore, it stands to reason, based on observation from previous weeks coupled with the outcome of this show, that the producers are still doing some mixing of the bottom guys with the bottom girls. So this explains Phil's presence in this group. The only one to explain now is the Lovely Haley. The list provided by the new comer, did not have Haley in the bottom 3. So this is enigmatic. The possible explanations are, either this list provided was not correct (recall that this list was not provided by the usual reliable source, or at least that is not yet determined), or the list is correct, and the producers are not necessarily taking the bottom girls.

It could be that the producers realised that we have been on to them, having figured out that the bottom 3 have been a mixture of the bottom girls with the bottom guys, and so are now using different criteria. This of course is to be expected, as their main aim is to maintain the element of surprise. Then again, maybe all along, the only element of truth they care about is that the actual lowest vote getter, is the one who leaves, and anyone else can appear in the bottom 3. I doubt that though.

Until I see the real list confirmed by the reliable source, of the ranking by votes for each contestant, it is difficult for me to confidently formulate a theory to explain this results show. What is clear though, is that trickery is involved. If I do get more info, I shall revisit this log. Stay tuned.

(Mar 28 Results Show)
Well well...the top 10 results show is now complete, and my pre-results show predictions have been very much on target (scroll down to Mar 28 Pre-Results Show) . The only inaccuracy was my feeling that they would have put Jordin instead of Haley in the bottom 3. But now that I think about it, going by my working theory, it was not possible for them to place Jordin in the bottom 3 without Haley being in it also.

Ok, let me try to clarify my thinking. It is my belief that the true bottom 3 were Chris Sligh, Haley Scarnato and Jordin Sparks. However, I believe the producers have their reasons for misleading the public. So what I think they do, (building on the theory explained below and credited to rastafarian), and have been doing for at least the last 3 shows now, is showing the bottom of the guys, or bottom of the guys mixed with the bottom of the girls. So if it is a guy who is going home, they would either show only the bottom 3 guys (even though a girl might actually be lower than one or two of those guys) or they would mix it with the bottom girl or girls (even though those girls might have gotten more votes than other guys).

So in the case of tonight, the word on the street was that Chris S was lowest overall, and Haley was next lowest. Now to maintain some semblance of truth, they can't just pick any person to be in the bottom 3 but just making sure the lowest is in it. What they need to do, is either have Chris with Haley and Jordin (bottom 2 girls), or Chris with the next lowest guy (ie. the bottom 2 guys), and Haley (bottom girl). The leaked information had Phil as the next lowest guy, which is why I predicted that they would have him in the bottom 3.

Since the producers want to be tricky, they would not put Chris, Haley and Jordin, since that is the actual bottom 3. They can't put Chris, Jordin and someone else, as to maintain their innocence, they need to include the bottom girl, if they are going to include a girl at all. Therefore, since they wanted a girl to be displayed, then the remaining option was to have Chris, Haley, and the guy with the next lowest number of votes of the guys, who happened to be Phil.

What do you think?

(Mar 28 Pre-Results Show)
Ok, the results show is fast approaching. The word on the street today is that the bottom 3 are Chris S, Lovely Haley and Jordin, with Chris expected to go. Again, this makes sense based on DialIdol's stats. But we can expect more mind games from the producers, so don't expect the bottom 2 or 3 they show to match this leaked information.

Of course, one can argue that this word on the street is just wrong, and therefore does not match the bottom 3 highlighted on the show. However, I'm going to go with the theory that the producers are playing games, while assuming that the rumour of the bottom 3 is correct. Therefore, I expect that the bottom 3 will have Chris S, either Jordin or Haley (but not both) and Phil. If they only show 2 again, then it will be Chris S and one of the girls, most likely Jordin. I'll be back after the show to comment.

(Mar 21 Results Show)
On the American Idol forum on a user with the forum name rastafarian posted an interesting thought. He postulated that the bottom 2 (Stephanie Edwards and Chris Richardson) might really have been the bottom 2 for the girls and boys. In other words, Steph got lowest votes for girls, and Chris got lowest for boys.

Now if there is any truth to this, then it would mean that Chris R might not have been in the overall bottom 3. There is a certain attractiveness to this idea. Remember that based on dialidol's predictions, it was plausible for 3 girls to be in the bottom 3. Also, the rumour that was circulating before the results show had Steph, Haley and Gina as the real bottom 3, with Steph expected to go.

If we were to entertain this idea even further, then it means that for the previous week, the "bottom 3" could really have been the bottom 3 guys, where it just so happened that a guy had the lowest votes overall. But for the other two, it would not mean they had the next lowest number of votes.

Now why would the producers do something like this? Well there could be several reasons. And one could be to make it seem like Dialidol is not at all effective, as Tim7357 commented below.

What do you think?

(Mar 14 Results Show)There is a conspiracy theory circulating that the bottom 3 contestants for last night's show (ie. Mar 14) were not really the bottom 3. Many are surmising that Sanjaya must have ranked higher than that. After all, VoteForTheWorst and Stern, plus his fanbase which got him so far in the first place, would seem to be enough to keep him from the danger zone. Add to that, that DialIdol had him totally safe.

Tell us what you think. Are the producers messing with our minds? Are Seacrest's words loose enough to allow a non-bottom-3er to appear as one of the bottom 3?


Anonymous said...

I think the producers are misleading us. Probably for several reasons. One could be so that it is not too predictable of who will be in the bottom 3 in the following week.

Another reason could be to try to make people think DialIdol is not accurate. Afterall, if DialIdol consistently predicted the right people, then it could take away some interest from the results show.

Anonymous said...

Let me clarify the first point I made, as it could be confused with the second. I was trying to say that if they put the real bottom 3, then one would probably expect that in the following week, 2 of those 3 will likely be in the bottom 3. But if say Chris Sligh was really in the bottom 3, then it will be more surprising when he does appear among them the following week.

Anonymous said...

I think the producers REALLY decide who stays and who goes. After all, it's their show. And I think Sanjaya was placed in the bottom 3 so that next week they can get rid of him - regardless of the votes. Top 10 goes on tour, so I'm betting they won't let him be in the top 10. Same thing happened with that weird Chicken Little guy a while back.

Anonymous said...

I think this speculation is all nonsense. Sanj boy is a crappy performer. It is no surprise he is in the bottom 3. A better question is, why the hell is he still there?!

idoltheory said...

"A better question is, why the hell is he[Sanjaya] still there?!"

This is a good question, and a area is already dedicated to it.Feel free to post your theories on this here:
Poor Performing Contestants

Anonymous said...

Very interesting! Something to think about