Recap Top 8 Results Show

After a somewhat exhausting break with the Idol Gives Back special, it is back to business. Time for someone to pack their bags and go!

First however, is a recap of the charity special. Naturally it is a bit lengthy considering it was a long show (2.5 hours -that's a lot of commercials!).

Over 31 millions votes cast. Apparently this is the highest for the season.

Time to get some results now. It's the now regular routine with empty sofa and 3 empty seats. Our first revelation is of Brooke. Ryan mentioned something emotional going on with her and she explains her sister is getting married this weekend and she won't be able to be there. Then she realises that this is the results show and she just might get to go home after all. Alas, Ryan tells her the unfortunate news, that she is safe, which means she will miss the wedding.

Next up is David Cook who walks quite humbly on to the stage, looking quite sheepish, knowing that he really did poorly and stands a chance of going home. No doubt he also recalls Simon calling him pompous, and so must not make Simon look right. When Ryan asks him how he feels, all he could muster up was "either way". Well the lucky bastard is safe! Truth be told, even though he did the worst this round, he has done enough to prove his right to remain in the show. So it's good the producers decided to keep him on.

David Archuleta called to face the music. Well he's safe. We all knew that anyway. Moving on...

A little spill over from the charity show takes our attention to Africa. Things are really bad in some parts over there. I hope you all gave a lot.

We then get treated to a performance by Jordin Sparks (she won American Idol last year btw) and some guy named Chris Brown. A decent little gig I admit. After that, some folks come on stage to present Jordin with some tokens to mark her success. Apparently she has items that has had over 1 million downloads. This is supposed to mean that American Idol works. Ok, but what happened with Taylor Hicks?

It's now Jason Castro's turn to hear his result. At this point he must be thinking that with just 5 contestants including himself left to be seated, that the probability is quite high that he'll have to take a bad seat. But it was not to be. This guy has escaped again!

Kristy is called next, and this is when I was quite sure that they would leave the bottom 3 for last. It had crossed my mind earlier, but I couldn't be sure. Kristy is safe (amazing how far she's come considering she should rightly have gone from the top 12 week)

Just before the break, Ryan asks who will have the lowest vote count, and if you had a sharp eye, you'd have noticed Carly raising her hand. She clearly knew she deserved to go.


I should mention that there were some clips by the presidential candidates.

So our so called bottom 3 is Michael, Carly and Syesha. Well if you read my recap of the performance show, you'll see I didn't even mention Syesha as being in any danger, so I knew she was ok. Carly no doubt was the bottom vote getter. However, as I said, Michael was also in danger, depending on whether the producers decided to let a guy go.

Ryan asked Randy what he thought. Randy said it was a pretty surprising bottom 3. Asked if she thinks America got it right, Paula says partly.

Well when Ryan called Syesha and Carly together, it was clear that Michael was the chosen one.

I must say I'm not at all sorry to see him go. As I've said, his style doesn't suit me. A girl will go home next week. Good chance it will be Brooke. But I guess there's still time to change the future!

David Hernandez's Early Elimination

Why was David Hernandez eliminated so early?

The simple minded might be tempted to say it was because he got the lowest number of votes that night. One could even point out that his performance really wasn't all that, and was probably one of the worst for that week.

But look at David Archuleta. Objectively speaking, his performance that night was also one of the worst, forgetting lyrics a number of times, and just terrible. He wasn't even in the supposedly bottom 3. Well it's not hard to believe he had already developed a massive and loyal fan base by this time, enough to ensure his presence the following week.

Ok, but can we forget how badly Kristy Lee Cook did that week? Could America be so demented that they liked her better than Hernandez? It would be a sad state of affairs if that is the case, and no doubt forebodes the collapse of the USA. Forget terrorism. There is the more imminent threat of national stupidity.

In all serious though, this is David Hernandez we're speaking of here. Who could forget his previous spectacular performances? Surely he is allowed to err once. Just look at this:


(If you're not able to see the video above, use this link)

This alone should have convinced voters that this guy has huge potential, and is someone to keep around for a while. It makes the show more interesting, as you anticipate great things from this guy.

Now there is the matter of the gay strip joint scandal. Could it be that he lost so much of his support when the news of his past came out? Well Hernandez would prefer to believe that it was just a matter of poor song choice.

I personally don't think he would have lost so many votes to place him below Kristy, as a result of the scandal. What we must also remember is that in the pre-top 12 rounds, the guys were getting more votes than the girls. It is reasonable to assume then that the vote tally for the lowest guy in those rounds would have exceeded that of the lowest girl. This would make it more likely for a girl to first leave once the top 12 started.

So what really happened? Well here is my theory. Kristy did get the lowest votes. I also believe based on a certain source, that there was another girl who got lower than David Hernandez. However David was the lowest ranked among the guys. Like last season when the producers appeared to have been messing with us, it seems they are doing it again this year. It could be that they really didn't like the negative publicity that Hernandez was giving the show, and decided to make the lowest of the guys leave that round. If they allowed him another week, he might pull another Papa was a Rollin Stone, and sail through further than they were willing to tolerate. Best to nip this in the bud. And this way, they don't come across as the bad guys, as compared to if they had disqualified him.

That's my theory. If you have others, let us know.

Theories -Archive

This page contains theories dating back from Season 6 (2007).

Melinda Doolittle's Elimination

Were Sanjaya And Phil Axed By Producers?

The Sanjaya Malakar Phenomenon

Why Use Lowest Vote Count To Eliminate?

About The Judges

If American Idol Was A Radio Programme

Results Show Seating Arrangement

Order In Which Contestants Perform

Bottom 3 (really??)

Season 6 - Attrocious!

Poor Performing Contestants

End of Idol

Are Votes Disregarded?

Were Sanjaya And Phil Axed By The Producers?

In the top 7 week, did Sanjaya really get the lowest number of votes? And was Phil really in the bottom two the week he got eliminated?

I do not think so. Various indicators give a different result.

I have a running thread on the Bottom 2 or 3 that they show. (see Bottom 2/3 theory page)
There I offered some comments on what really happened the week Sanjaya got eliminated. But with the demise of Phil, things are becoming a little clearer. The producers went too far this time.

Let's get this straight. Sanjaya did not have the lowest number of votes when he got eliminated. And in the double elimination week, Phil was in the top 2, not bottom 2 when he got eliminated.

So what's really going on? The real ranking for Phil was second, with Blake above him. In that round, Lakisha and Chris were the true bottom 2. I'm of course going on the trusty source I've mentioned all along who has been providing the real results. Also, the dialidol scores indicated Chris and Lakisha were in the bottom 2, with Phil ranking number 3. In the Sanjaya week, there were other sources apart from my trusty one, which indicated that Lakisha was really the lowest vote getter.

With the elimination of Phil, I can now see what they are doing, though I'm still unclear as to what they are ultimately up to. In my bottom 2/3 theory page, I explained how the bottom 3 or 2 that they show are a mix of the lowest guys and the lowest girls. So the 3 that they show are not necessarily the 3 lowest. However, up until the round with Lovely Haley, they were eliminating the true lowest. That seemed to have stopped with Sanjaya.

The ones who have been eliminated since the Lovely Haley, are the lowest of the guys, not the lowest overall. So Sanjaya was the lowest ranked guy, but still higher than Lakisha. Phil and Chris were the lowest guys when they got eliminated. But Phil was not in the bottom 3 muchless the bottom 2.

It seems that at a certain point the producers decided to take their little game a step further, and not just mess with the results by mixing the lowest guys with the lowest girls in the bottom 3, but by actually eliminating the lowest guy even when he wasn't the lowest overall!

Why are the boys messing with the show like this? In the case of Sanjaya, is it that they wanted Sanjaya off, or that they wanted Lakisha to stay? In the case of Phil, is it that they wanted Phil off, or they wanted Lakisha to stay? Are there other factors to consider? Maybe they just want to demoralise VoteForTheWorst?

Let's explore this a little. If they had let Lakisha go instead of Sanjaya, then it means there would have been 4 boys left and 2 girls. Also, it would mean Sanjaya would get to stay on an extra week since no one was taken out in charity week. Perhaps the producers thought it too much of a risk to have Sanjaya stick around so much longer. He would have been a real threat to make it into the top 4. Or maybe his presence on the show up until the top 7 was already making the show too much about him, making the show a joke. Remember that week Simon's comments to Sanjaya was something to the effect that the joke had gone on too long? Another factor not to be ignored is that the anti-American Idol site, VoteForTheWorst was getting a great deal of publicity. The founder of the site was even on the David Letterman show the night before Sanjaya got eliminated.

But why eliminate Phil? What did he ever do wrong? Well it is simple. Phil could have been a threat to Blake. It is obvious the producers want Blake to go far, probably even into the finale (though that is just stupid). Not only could they end up having another Taylor Hicks on their hands, with Phil surpassing Blake, but it would give more publicity to the VoteForTheWorst crowd, as Phil was their new pick.

Well I'll just list out possible factors to explain this outrageous behaviour of the producers:

1. They probably are trying to arrange a finale with Blake
2. They shudder at the thought of having to promote Phil or Sanjaya
3. They really wanted to discredit VoteForTheWorst
4. They have been trying to protect Lakisha for whatever reason
5. They want to thwart dialidol's predictions as well as those those who have been leaking insider info regarding the voting results. In other words, they want to keep their show as unpredictable as possible

Can you think of anymore? What do you think?

The Sanjaya Malakar Phenomenon

Season 6 Contestant Sanjaya Malakar has no doubt proven to be the most controversial contestant in the top 12 of American Idol this year. Just a brief perusal of blogs and discussion boards pertaining to the show, will quickly demonstrate how much attention he is getting and how worked up people do get when his name (or one of his many nicknames) is mentioned. Sanjaya is not only criticised for his poor performances, but also for his eccentric look, particularly with respect to his ever changing hairstyle. People want to know how it is that such a character is still on the show? How did he even manage to make the top 24, muchless the top 12?

Now these are questions that have been puzzling me too. I had another theory page devoted to the poor-performing contestants who last long, and I lumped Sanjaya in there. But I think he deserves his own space. I cannot think of a worse contestant who ever made it to the top 12. No, Scott Savol, John Stevens, Josh Gracin and Kevin Covais do not belong in Sanjaya's category.

It seems most people realise he is totally a misfit in the company of the other contestants, that he is just not in their league. Yet he continues to outlast his more talented peers. This naturally gets some upset. One girl put herself on a hunger strike which was meant to last until this madness stops. It was rumoured that a petition was started to get him off the show. Simon Cowell even said that he would quit American Idol if Sanjaya won (no doubt an exaggeration).

I had a sneaky feeling that Sanjaya didn't just suddenly start to do poorly when he appeared in the top 24. So I went back and listened to his first aired audition. Take a listen yourselves.



Click here if you can't see the video above

What I find weird, is that the judges said he sounded better than his sister. I don't get that. I can at least see why they sent him to the hollywood round, but seriously, how the heck did he get past that? The judges must have let him through to the top 24 just for fun. I guess it can be compared to the days when the Romans would put Christians in the Colosseum with starving lions, just to give the crowd some enjoyment. Of course, those of us with a sense of decency and good morals, just think this is downright cruel and deplorable!

The funny thing is, the lad has managed to defy all logic, and to the judges'/producers' consternation, has been thriving. Remember that VoteForTheWorst only started backing him when he reached the top 12, so he has genuinely won the favour of millions. The scary thing is, he actually started to sound decent in the top 9 and top 8 performance shows. The effect of this is that it makes it seem that he did great, particularly in the top 8 show. You see, after doing so attrociously consistently each round, an average performance sounds fantastic. More people are being drawn to the chap. It's like he is growing on people (dare I say like a fungus?)

Just what is it about this kid that elicits such venom from viewers, while at the same time endears enough persons to keep him on the show? Well this seems to be one of the biggest unsolved mysteries these days. The solution eludes even me. The theory of Indian call centres making it happen must be dismissed. Only calls that are classified as within the US are accepted. The best thing I can come up with at this time is that there are a lot of females who like males who look almost female. Or basically, people like his look and so vote for him. I cannot imagine that the millions who keep him on each week, vote because of his voice. Those who actually vote because of his vocals are probably in the hundreds.

There is of course the Jimmy Kimmel theory.



Click here if you can't see the video above

On a more serious note, another theory was posted here which attributes evil hypnotic powers to Sanjaya's teeth.

I'll update this page if I can come up with any other theories. Until then, I surely welcome any ideas you may have. Don't hesitate to post them here.

Why Use The Lowest Vote Count To Eliminate?

When I first started watching American Idol in season 2, I used to wonder why it was set up such that you vote for who you like best as opposed to who you want gone.

Recall that season 2 was the one that featured Clay Aiken and Ruben Studdard. In my opinion, Clay was so much better than everyone else, that I wondered how any of the other contestants, aside from Ruben (since the judges clearly wanted him to win), got any votes. I didn't realise at the time that one could vote multiple times for multiple contestants. And yes, I eventually realised that there were people who actually thought other contestants were the best.

Now the way I looked at it, I figured it would be better to vote for the contestant one wanted booted off. For if most people from the start wanted Clay to win, then most would be voting for him each round, leaving little votes left to allocate to the other contestants.

This would mean that the weakest performer could easily end up sticking around longer than a better but still relatively average (ie. not in Clay's league) contestant. For the votes split among the mediocre idols would mainly come from friends, family and acquaintances. At least that is how I viewed things at the time. Therefore, if the weakest contestant had a huge family and lots of friends, he/she could manage to outlast several better contestants who might not have so many friends and relatives. (Remember I'm figuring that most people would just vote Clay or Ruben, and I didn't know one could vote multiple times for multiple persons).

So with the above in mind, I thought that it would be better if the voting was such that the one with the highest votes leaves the competition. That would make it less likely for the weaker contestants to survive longer than those better than themselves.

That was back then. I've come to understand things more since. But with the rise of the likes of Antonella Barba and Sanjaya Malaker, who seem so out of place on the show, yet somehow manage to stick around much longer than reason would allow, some are suggesting that the voting rules need to be changed. People are fearing that Sanjaya will ruin the show. So various proposals have been made, such as what I discussed before, to have the contestant with the highest vote count leave the show.

There is a problem with this approach though. It would appear that a lot of people do not get the theory behind the voting set up as it stands. It is in the best interest of the producers to have it the way it is.

Remember that the producers are looking to make the most amount of money that they can. This means that they must seek to maximise the success of the contestant that they give record deals to. Having the public vote for who they like, will further this end. Let me explain.

Voting for the one you favour helps to emotionally bind you to the contestant. It is a psychological matter. Sales books will tell you that as a salesman, you need to get your potential buyer to say yes to a string of questions that lead up to saying yes to the product. It is a way to condition the mind of the buyer into a more receptive mode, and so making it easier for him to say yes to the final and most important question -the one that closes the deal.

Voting for the one you want to win, is not exactly the same, but the concept is somewhat similar. Get you to say yes to the Idol repeatedly, and the more likely you are to buy his record when it comes out. A mental and emotional bond to this Idol is built. So you are now conditioned to buy his/her upcoming record. Had you been voting only for the one you wanted to leave each week, you would not have grown so attached to your favourite, and that could make the difference in whether you buy or don't buy.

Well, that I believe is the theory behind the voting rules as they stand. Any proposal to change the rules, must factor this in.

The Importance of Simon Cowell

Simon Cowell has been said to be highest paid star in the history of the Fox network. Some reports have it that he is being paid $36 million or more by Fox. So clearly his importance to the show is acknowledged.

The question here is, just how critical is he to the show? Could American Idol survive without him? Simon once made a comment to the effect that if Sanjaya wins, he would quit the show. We know that's just hyperbole though, as he is bound by contract for some years to come. At least, it would not be so easy for him to quit.

Cowell has become a trademark to the show. He's the judge that most viewers want to hear, and that most contestants want to get a good review from. Witness Haley Scarnato's comments pertaining to the judges feedback in the top 9 performance show.

Cowell clearly brings great entertainment value with his candor, no-nonsense approach and total disregard for political correctness and hurt feelings in his feedback to idol contestants, and even sometimes in his interaction with his fellow judges. He often says things that the viewers are naturally thinking, though there are times when it looks like he is just trying to be difficult. He is at times quite outrageous, but that usually only adds humour to the show.

What would the show be like without him? It should be obvious that the show would not be as captivating if there were two Randys and one Paula, or two Paulas and one Randy. The Simon character has become a defining characteristic of the show.

With the aforementioned in mind then, it is difficult to see how the show could survive without Cowell. It probably would not be enough to replace him with someone who tries to be like him. That substitute would be seen as a phony, and would probably never measure up to the original.

But let us hear what you think? Could American Idol survive as such a popular show without Simon Cowell as a judge? What are your reasons?

Interchanging Paula and Randy

We've seen that the judges clearly do have an impact on the voting outcome (see What Impact Do The Judges Have On Voting?). The question here, is what would be the effect if we interchanged Paula and Randy? In other words, if Paula gave her comments first, followed by Randy, what difference would it make?

Obviously, Paula would no longer be able to parrot Randy's comments with an additional "you look gorgeous", or something along that line. I suspect we would start hearing a lot more difference in their feedback. This in turn could affect the voting if there appears to be less agreement among the judges. In any case, surely it would be an interesting experiment to execute such an interchange.

So what do you think -How different from Randy would Paula turn out to be? Would this change put her in a more favourable light, or would it make her look bad? What sort of impact would this rearrangement have on the way people vote?

What Impact Do The Judges Have On The Voting?

Simon said in regard to Sanjaya during the top 10 performance show, that it doesn't really matter what they (ie. the judges) say anymore. In the case of Sanjaya, there might be some truth to this. But this raises the question of just what impact do the judges have anyway?

To answer this question, we must first determine the types of voting viewers out there. I submit that there are the following:

1. Die-hard fans who will vote for their favourite contestant each week, regardless of what the judges say, and regardless of how badly their guy/girl performs.

2. Those who vote based on who they think did best that week.

3. Those who want to prove the judges wrong, so vote for the contestants that the judges gave poor reviews for.

4. The VoteForTheWorsters.

If I am leaving out any other category, please post it in the comments.

In the cases of 1 and 4, clearly the judges have no impact. Categories 2 and 3 would be where the judges will have the most impact, though it will be in opposite directions.

Just based on intuition, it would appear that category 2 has by far the largest population. This would be the audience that will vote more in line with how the judges have assessed the contestants.

Now why should what the judges say, affect even these folks? Well the minds of this set of people is more impressionable to the word of authority. The judges are authority figures, and what they say will seem to be true to those who see them in this light, which is the majority of folks. This is simply a matter of psychology.

Have you ever listened to a contestant perform, and you thought they did ok, with some weaknesses here and there, and then when you hear the judges comment on how terrible it was, you start to revise your assessment downwards? Or have you ever been totally unimpressed with a contestant, but hear the judges give raving reviews, not just once, but consistently over time, and then you just start accepting that the contestant must really be good? Even I as a critical viewer sometimes find myself being swayed by what the judges say, until I realise what I'm doing, and do a re-evaluation.

Now to demonstrate just how powerful the words of the judges are, let us take the case of season 2 of American Idol. Here we can see that it was the judges who practically made Ruben the American Idol. Clay Aiken was clearly the superior contestant, and record sales subsequent to the show have proven this. But the judges' consistently high praise of Ruben week after week seems to have skewed the voting in his favour.

Considering the various categories of viewers, it is likely that the impact of the judges will diminish over time, especially if the same judges are used each year. Familiarity breeds contempt, as the saying goes. The votefortheworsters are likely to continue gaining support, taking away from the population more susceptible to being swayed by the judges. However, this population is probably so large, that it is not likely to be reduced enough to significantly affect the impact of the judges anytime soon.

Then again, it might not take that much of a shift from this judge friendly subset of voters to that of the votefortheworsters, for the effects to start being noticed. The reason for this is that, most people in the former group probably only cast a handful of votes at any given time. The latter group however, vote as much as they can, like hundreds or even thousands of times on a given performance show night.

So the conclusion is, the judges do have a significant amount of swaying power, though it has probably been decreasing over the years.

If American Idol Was A Radio Programme

If American Idol was a radio programme, what impact would it have on our perception of who is the best or even the worst? In other words, would it affect who we choose as our favourite or least favourite?

My theory is that it would make a significant difference. As the show is now, people tend to get distracted by looks, and moves on stage. This can actually work both ways. Silly girls might fawn over a guy because he has long hair and pay less attention to the quality of singing. On the other hand, some might dislike a contestant just because of the look, whether it is cockiness, haughtiness or ugliness, regardless of voice calibre.

So for example, for this season, Sanjaya would have been out long ago, for sure!
What about Blake? Well I don't think he would have been out yet, but would he be so popular?

What about previous seasons - who would have been impacted the most, for better or worse?

Results Show Seating Arrangement

I'm not sure how much of a theory this is, as maybe the mechanics of this process has been made public before and I simply didn't hear. But based on observation, I would postulate that the seating arrangement in the results show of the contestants is not random. I believe those who know the results beforehand, ensure that the contestants sit in a particular order.

When I first watched American Idol, which was the second season, I used to wonder, what happens if Ryan identifies the bottom 3 before going through all the contestants? If that happened then he wouldn't get the chance to give the summary for each participant of their previous night's performance and the judges responses.

As I continued to watch though, I notice that never happened.

Therefore, it would appear that they try to ensure that one of the bottom three is either at the end of the row, or in the seat just before that. Now the theory breaks down as more contestants leave the show. For at a certain point, Ryan gets creative and instead of going in order for each row, he might split them up into groups.

So then, this should mean that if Ryan goes row by row, then one of the bottom 3 will be at the end of a row, or just before it. However, if Ryan all of a sudden skips some in a row to go toward the end of it, then it would indicate that one of the bottom 3 is either the person he skipped who would have been the logical continuation in the sequence, or the person who is just next to him/her.

So for example, if in a row we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and Ryan said 1 is safe, and then skips over to 6 and starts to proceed to 5, then we should be able to safely conclude that either 2 or 3 is in the bottom 3.

Well Top 11 results show will soon be up. We can try making a prediction based on this theory. I'll post a comment after the show.

Order In Which Contestants Perform

Does the order in which the contestants perform affect the outcome of the votes?

My theory is that it does, with the one performing first being at a disadvantage. The reason I say this, is that it is easier to forget the first performance since you'd have to sit through all the others, making it less fresh in your mind. (Naturally the more performers, the worse it is for the first, according to this theory). Also, some people might tune in to the show just a little late when the first performer has just finished.

Ok, the only evidence I can think of offhand is Rudy (the first guy voted off in the top 25) and Brandon (first one to leave the top 12). Now I don't think Rudy should have gone that round. Brandon however, probably really deserved to. So not much data yet to back this theory. But we'll see how it goes. Keep in mind though that as the contestants become fewer, the effect of going first will diminish.

The word on the streets is that Haley is going first tonight (Mar 20, 2007). If this is true, then it could mean the producers are now taking action to knock her out the show. Well this brings up the question, just how do they determine what order the contestants perform in? In any case, we must work harder tonight to keep the lovely Haley in the game.

The Bottom 2/3 (really?)

(Apr 23 Update for Top 7 Results Show) The trusty dialidol source had the bottom 4 as (going in descending order) Blake, Chris, Sanjaya, Lakisha. This list would seem to pose a challenge to the theory being explored here. First of all, Lakisha didn't go home. Second, based on my working theory, that they are mixing the bottom guys with the bottom girls, then Blake, Sanjaya and Lakisha should not have been a possible option. Yet that is who they showed as the bottom 3.

But all is not lost. First of all, the source indicated that Sanjaya and Lakisha were extremely close. This being the case, it seems they forced Sanjaya out. Now I don't think this is so far fetched. For if the two were really very close in the voting tally, then the producers could reason that since Sanjaya was getting a lot of VoteForTheWorst votes, then Lakisha would have had more legitimate votes than Sanjaya, and so made a discretionary judgment to eliminate Sanjaya. Ok, this would take care of the discrepancy of Sanjaya leaving as opposed to Lakisha.

There is still the issue of Blake being shown in the bottom 3 as opposed to Chris. I should also mention that another person had posted a results list shortly after the trusty source posted his. In this other list, the only difference was that Blake and Chris were interchanged. Therefore going by that list, there is no dilemma at all. Also, dialidol stats had Blake, Sanjaya and Lakisha ranked lowest. What I believe is actually going on here, is that Chris and Blake were also very close. So the producers probably thought they had the right to put either Chris or Blake in the bottom 3. Since they seem to favour Blake over Chris, it makes sense to put him in this group, since he will likely get a boost in votes the next round, from fans and others who will put more effort into voting just to make sure he doesn't come so close to danger next time. Then again, the true list could have been the one from the second dialidol source.

I will have to conclude that the theory continues to hold.

(Apr 17 Update for Top 8 Results Show) I should have updated this earlier. But with the loss of the Lovely Haley, I just wasn't inclined to. But I think it is in the best interest of the public that I share the data I have and supply my analysis. The trusty source cited the true bottom 3 to be Chris, Lakisha and Haley, with Chris getting more votes than Lakisha. Phil was ranked just above Chris. So once again the theory continues to hold. They just showed the bottom 2 guys and the girl. It seems the producers don't mind if Lakisha takes an early exit. If Lakisha does leave next, I'll add some comments regarding that.

(Apr 5 Post Results Show update) I promised I would revisit this log if I got any updates. Well good news! The reliable source from dialidol has posted the list of the contestants ranked by votes. The true bottom 3 were Lakisha, Haley and Gina, in that order. Phil was just above Lakisha. So this means the theory postulated last week still holds. They used the lowest of the boys, with the lowest of the girls. Read entries below for more details. Now again, why would the producers not show the real bottom 3? As said before, one could be to confound dialidol's predictions. Another could be that they think it advantageous to them if Lakisha goes home next. For by not putting her with the bottom 3, she won't get the effect of her fans voting even harder the following week to save her. This of course would be a big shocker, which the producers certainly take pleasure in.

(Apr 4 Results Show) This week was a little tricky to analyse. The main problem is that the one responsible for giving the word to the street did not post the final results list. The person did post early in the day that it looked like Gina would be leaving, but explained that this info came in before all the votes were tallied. A list was posted by someone with a different and new username on the dialidol forum, shortly before the actual show, claiming that it was the updated results list. This list had Gina, Lakisha and Jordin as the bottom 3. Compare that to dialidol's stats which placed Haley, Gina and Lakisha as the bottom holders. Now in the updated list posted by the person with the new username on dialidol, Phil was not in the bottom 3, but was the lowest ranked of all the guys.

Now there is no reason to believe the American Idol producers are not up to tricks this week. Therefore, it stands to reason, based on observation from previous weeks coupled with the outcome of this show, that the producers are still doing some mixing of the bottom guys with the bottom girls. So this explains Phil's presence in this group. The only one to explain now is the Lovely Haley. The list provided by the new comer, did not have Haley in the bottom 3. So this is enigmatic. The possible explanations are, either this list provided was not correct (recall that this list was not provided by the usual reliable source, or at least that is not yet determined), or the list is correct, and the producers are not necessarily taking the bottom girls.

It could be that the producers realised that we have been on to them, having figured out that the bottom 3 have been a mixture of the bottom girls with the bottom guys, and so are now using different criteria. This of course is to be expected, as their main aim is to maintain the element of surprise. Then again, maybe all along, the only element of truth they care about is that the actual lowest vote getter, is the one who leaves, and anyone else can appear in the bottom 3. I doubt that though.

Until I see the real list confirmed by the reliable source, of the ranking by votes for each contestant, it is difficult for me to confidently formulate a theory to explain this results show. What is clear though, is that trickery is involved. If I do get more info, I shall revisit this log. Stay tuned.

(Mar 28 Results Show) Well well...the top 10 results show is now complete, and my pre-results show predictions have been very much on target (scroll down to Mar 28 Pre-Results Show) . The only inaccuracy was my feeling that they would have put Jordin instead of Haley in the bottom 3. But now that I think about it, going by my working theory, it was not possible for them to place Jordin in the bottom 3 without Haley being in it also.

Ok, let me try to clarify my thinking. It is my belief that the true bottom 3 were Chris Sligh, Haley Scarnato and Jordin Sparks. However, I believe the producers have their reasons for misleading the public. So what I think they do, (building on the theory explained below and credited to rastafarian), and have been doing for at least the last 3 shows now, is showing the bottom of the guys, or bottom of the guys mixed with the bottom of the girls. So if it is a guy who is going home, they would either show only the bottom 3 guys (even though a girl might actually be lower than one or two of those guys) or they would mix it with the bottom girl or girls (even though those girls might have gotten more votes than other guys).

So in the case of tonight, the word on the street was that Chris S was lowest overall, and Haley was next lowest. Now to maintain some semblance of truth, they can't just pick any person to be in the bottom 3 but just making sure the lowest is in it. What they need to do, is either have Chris with Haley and Jordin (bottom 2 girls), or Chris with the next lowest guy (ie. the bottom 2 guys), and Haley (bottom girl). The leaked information had Phil as the next lowest guy, which is why I predicted that they would have him in the bottom 3.

Since the producers want to be tricky, they would not put Chris, Haley and Jordin, since that is the actual bottom 3. They can't put Chris, Jordin and someone else, as to maintain their innocence, they need to include the bottom girl, if they are going to include a girl at all. Therefore, since they wanted a girl to be displayed, then the remaining option was to have Chris, Haley, and the guy with the next lowest number of votes of the guys, who happened to be Phil.

What do you think?

(Mar 28 Pre-Results Show) Ok, the results show is fast approaching. The word on the street today is that the bottom 3 are Chris S, Lovely Haley and Jordin, with Chris expected to go. Again, this makes sense based on DialIdol's stats. But we can expect more mind games from the producers, so don't expect the bottom 2 or 3 they show to match this leaked information.

Of course, one can argue that this word on the street is just wrong, and therefore does not match the bottom 3 highlighted on the show. However, I'm going to go with the theory that the producers are playing games, while assuming that the rumour of the bottom 3 is correct. Therefore, I expect that the bottom 3 will have Chris S, either Jordin or Haley (but not both) and Phil. If they only show 2 again, then it will be Chris S and one of the girls, most likely Jordin. I'll be back after the show to comment.

(Mar 21 Results Show)On the American Idol forum on dialidol.com a user with the forum name rastafarian posted an interesting thought. He postulated that the bottom 2 (Stephanie Edwards and Chris Richardson) might really have been the bottom 2 for the girls and boys. In other words, Steph got lowest votes for girls, and Chris got lowest for boys.

Now if there is any truth to this, then it would mean that Chris R might not have been in the overall bottom 3. There is a certain attractiveness to this idea. Remember that based on dialidol's predictions, it was plausible for 3 girls to be in the bottom 3. Also, the rumour that was circulating before the results show had Steph, Haley and Gina as the real bottom 3, with Steph expected to go.

If we were to entertain this idea even further, then it means that for the previous week, the "bottom 3" could really have been the bottom 3 guys, where it just so happened that a guy had the lowest votes overall. But for the other two, it would not mean they had the next lowest number of votes.

Now why would the producers do something like this? Well there could be several reasons. And one could be to make it seem like Dialidol is not at all effective, as Tim7357 commented below.

What do you think?

(Mar 14 Results Show)There is a conspiracy theory circulating that the bottom 3 contestants for last night's show (ie. Mar 14) were not really the bottom 3. Many are surmising that Sanjaya must have ranked higher than that. After all, VoteForTheWorst and Stern, plus his fanbase which got him so far in the first place, would seem to be enough to keep him from the danger zone. Add to that, that DialIdol had him totally safe.

Tell us what you think. Are the producers messing with our minds? Are Seacrest's words loose enough to allow a non-bottom-3er to appear as one of the bottom 3?

Free For All Posting Here

This section is for you to post your thoughts and theories that do not yet have their own space. If a theory or question turns out to be interesting enough, it will be highlighted by being awarded its own space. So let's hear your theories for everything idol!

About The Judges

This page will serve as the index page to the various theories that are focused on the judges.

What Impact Do The Judges Have On Voting?

Interchanging Paula and Randy

The Importance Of Simon Cowell